Thinking of buying or holding British Airways Avios? Be very, very careful.

Other links to products and travel providers on this website will earn Traveling For Miles a commission that helps contribute to the running of the site. Opinions, reviews, analyses & recommendations are the author’s alone and have not been reviewed, endorsed, or approved by any of these entities. Terms apply to all credit card welcome offers, earning rates and benefits and some credit card benefits will require enrollment. For more details please see the disclosures found at the bottom of every page.

With multiple airlines now using Avios as their frequent flyer program’s currency, it’s a currency that’s never held a wider appeal than it does right now, but it’s also a currency which for some, is extra risky to hold or buy right now.

All loyalty program currencies come with a health warning – never buy a currency speculatively as you never know when the program to which that currency is attached will change its rules leading to a decrease in the currency’s value – but as more airlines have adopted Avios as their chosen currency and as Avios has become transferable between multiple programs, the fallout from an Avios devaluation has become less threatening.

It would take a coordinated joint devaluation by most (or all) of the Avios issuing programs to cause maximum pain and damage (if just one program devalues, flyers would still be able to use their Avios to book trips through other airline programs) and that’s not a scenario that we’re likely to see play out even though it’s not one that can be ruled out altogether.

Having said that, there a bit of extra jeopardy around British Airways Avios right now and it’s worth keeping this in mind in case you’re tempted to top up your account with a view to using any Avios you buy for a future British Airways booking.

A bit of recent history

In October 2023, British Airways changed how it awards Avios for flights booked through its own booking channels (as well as through a few other channels), so where Avios were once awarded on the distance a passenger flew and the cabin in which the passenger was booked, Avios are now awarded based on the net cost of a booking.

The more you spend, the more Avios you now earn, and the implementation of this was phase 1 of the changes to BA’s frequent flyer program.

At the very end of December 2024 and when the airline thought no one would really be paying attention, British Airways announced a significant set of changes to how its frequent flyer program awards elite status.

While status points (Tier Points) are currently awarded on the distance a passenger travels and the cabin in which the passenger is booked, going forward (from 1 April 2025), they will be awarded based on the net cost of a booking or, for some bookings, a miserly percentage of the distance traveled.

Once again, the more you spend, the greater the reward. So the more money you give BA, the more Tier Points you will earn. The implementation of this is phase 2 of the changes to BA’s frequent flyer program.

What’s coming

I’m in no doubt that there’s a phase 3 on its way and this will be the phrase that completes the transformation of BA’s frequent flyer program into a program where the currency and status points are earned (mostly) based on spending made with the airline and its partners, and where redemption pricing is directly linked to the cash cost of a fare.

Phase 3 is where the number of Avios you’ll need to book a redemption through British Airways will be linked to how much you would otherwise have had to pay (in real money) for the same booking.

Given that members of BA’s frequent flyer program were given 3 months’ notice of phase 1 and 3 months’ notice of phase 2, it seems reasonable to assume that they’ll be given just three months’ notice when the airline decides to implement phase 3.

It’s an open secret that various factions within BA/IAG loyalty have been pushing for this for some time (years) and now that the band aid has been ripped off with the implementation of phase 1 and phase 2, I’m very sure that it’s only a matter of time before phase 3 is rolled out.

The only thing I can’t be sure about is when phase 3 will be announced.

The key issue

If you’re happy using whatever Avios you have in your account(s) with any of the Avios-issuing airlines (Qatar Airways, Aer Lingus, Iberia, Finnair, and British Airways), then the value of your Avios balance probably isn’t in any immediate danger.

If, however, what Avios you have (or any Avios you plan to purchase) are earmarked for one or more redemptions that can only be made through British Airways (e.g. European Reward Flight Saver fares or USA-UK awards) you need to be aware that the cost of these redemptions may increase considerably if/when BA implements phase 3 of the changes to its frequent flyer program.

Yes, when dynamic award pricing comes into play, there will be occasions when the cost of an award will be cheaper than it is under the current pricing system, but you only need to take a look a the cost of awards over at Virgin Atlantic (an airline which moved to dynamic award pricing in Q4 2024) to see what the future may look like, and it’s not pretty.

I need to stress British Airways hasn’t yet announced any further changes, so I cannot say with 100% certainty that the airline will move to dynamic award pricing and I cannot tell you when such a change will occur should this turn out to be the airline’s intention, but there is every reason to believe that this is in the works (murmurings from within BA keep hinting at this) and there’s very little reason to suspect that phase 1 and phase 2 are the limit to which BA wishes to change its frequent flyer program.

If you’re going to base how you award status on how much a passenger spends and if you’re going to base how you award your currency based on how much a customer spends, it’s entirely logical to link the cost of an award booking to the cash cost value of the same booking.

Bottom line

I’m convinced that British Airways wishes to make one further big change to its frequent flyer program and that this change will see the airline link the cost of award redemption bookings to the underlying cash cost of the same booking.

When this happens (and I think it will happen sooner rather than later), I expect the airline to give its members no more than three months notice of the changes and I expect to see the cost of a lot of the more popular awards increase significantly.

The people who will be hit hardest by this move will be those who are limited in their travel dates by school vacations (cash fares are usually most expensive when schools are out so when the cost of award redemptions is linked to the cost of the cash fares, the cost of awards is likely to be high as well), but I suspect that the pain will be felt across the board.

If you’re holding on to Avios with the view of using them on a BA booking, my suggestion would be to make that booking as soon as you can because, given that Avios bookings can be cancelled (for a small fee), you don’t have much to lose.

If you’re considering buying any Avios with a view to using them on a British Airways booking, make sure that you have a plan to use them in the very short term and don’t make any purchases in the belief that what an award will cost you today will be what the same award will cost you later in the year.

Buying any loyalty currency speculatively is usually a bad idea, but buying Avios speculatively in the hope of using them for a BA booking at some as yet undetermined point in the future is an especially bad idea right now.