Do I or don’t I? (my Hawaiian Airlines dilemma)

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Tomorrow is the last day that transfers between Amex Membership Rewards and Hawaiian Airlines will earn a 20% bonus and, ordinarily, this wouldn’t be a bonus in which I’d have any interest.

These aren’t, however, ordinary times.

It looks like there’s a very good chance that Hawaiian will be taken over by Alaska Airlines and should that merger go ahead, Hawaiian miles would eventually be converted into Alaska Mileage Plan miles at, we’re led to believe, a very generous rate of 1:1.

And this makes life interesting.

Why Alaska miles?

The value of Alaska miles and the way Alaska miles can be used changed significantly back in March when the airline overhauled its award charts.

For some, the changes were a net positive while for others, the massive spike in the cost of some of the more aspirational awards was a huge negative.

Californians, in particular, took quite a big hit (the distance based charts put California mostly out of range of some of the better priced awards) so you’d think that I, as a Californian, wouldn’t look upon Alaska miles with much fondness.

There are, however, some good value spots in the new Alaska Airlines charts that I’m in a position to exploit (or will be in a position to exploit with the trips I’m planning) because not all of my trip have to originate or terminate in California.

Here are some Business Class examples:

• American Airlines or Air Tahiti Nui: Los Angeles – Auckland = 75,000 miles
• Air Tahiti Nui: Los Angeles – Tahiti = 75,000 miles
• Aer Lingus: JFK/Boston – Dublin = 45,000 miles
• Aer Lingus: Chicago – Dublin = 55,000 miles
• Royal Air Maroc: JFK – Casablanca – Madrid = 55,000 miles
• Malaysian Airlines: London – Kuala Lumpur – Perth = 85,000 miles
• Malaysian Airlines: London – Kuala Lumpur – Tokyo = 85,000 miles

Note: Taxes and surcharges would apply in a lot of these cases and so would have to be taken into account.

In Economy Class the best deals are available on short-haul itineraries:

• Miami – Aruba = 7,500 miles
• Los Angeles – Los Cabos = 7,500 miles
• Sydney – Melbourne = 4,500 miles
• Sydney – Brisbane = 4,500 miles
• Tokyo – Seoul = 7,500 miles

There was quite a bit to dislike about the Alaska Airlines award chart changes, but there were a few positive changes too.

The dilemma

Looking at the cost of the awards I’ve highlighted above, it would seem to make a lot of sense to convert some Membership Rewards points into Hawaiian miles while there’s a bonus on offer (I would need ~20% fewer miles for all of those awards), but that wouldn’t be a risk-free move … and this is where the dilemma comes into play.

Sure, if everything goes smoothly, converting Amex points into, effectively, Alaska miles would, in hindsight, look like a ‘no-brainer’, but what if everything doesn’t go smoothly.

What if the takeover/merger falls through? What would I do with all the Hawaiian Airlines miles that I would suddenly be sitting on? I have no idea.

What if the conversion rate isn’t eventually set at 1:1 and I don’t end up with the number of miles that I was expecting? Potentially, that could leave me short of the number of miles that I’ve calculated that I’ll need. That would be annoying.

There’s also the matter of the $0.006 charge per point that Amex levies on transfers to US loyalty programs. This is capped at $99, but that doesn’t make me like it any more.

It would be a bit galling if I’d paid to convert some Amex points to Hawaiian miles only to then find that the merger falls through or that conversion rate is worse than expected.

Lastly, it’s not like a transfer to Hawaiian is my only option.

Amex is currently offering a 30% bonus on transfers to British Airways, Iberia and Aer Lingus, and Avios is a currency out of which I get a lot of value.

I’ve already converted some Amex points to Avios, but if I now go ahead and transfer points to Hawaiian and something goes wrong with the merger, not only will I be left holding a bunch of miles for which I have no real use, but I would have also given up the (future) opportunity to generate more Avios (a currency that saves me more money than any other).

If I try to be logical about things, I know that there is a very good chance that nothing will go wrong with the merger and that the conversion rate will be set at 1:1 (just as it was when Alaska Airlines bought Virgin America), but something is still holding me back from making a big transfer to Hawaiian Miles.

I’ve been thinking about this all week, and I still don’t know if I should just go for it and I’m running out of time.

What would you do?