Contrarian View: Marriott’s Hotel Category Changes Are Not That Bad

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Last week I analysed the changes Marriott announced that it would be making to its hotel categories from March 6th onwards. I concluded that the changes are clearly a net negative but I also said that I didn’t think they were quite as bad as some are making them out to be.

I’ve now had time to take another look at the changes that are coming and I think I’ve found another way of looking at them.

Recapping The Marriott Hotel Category Changes

Marriott has said that 74% of its properties will stay in the same category they were in last year and that only 21% of its properties are moving up while 5% will move down.

Those numbers look reasonably benign when Marriott frames them like that but, when you consider that 81% of properties moving categories are moving to a higher category, things look a bit more serious.

It looks even worse when you frame the results as a ratio – for every 1 property moving down a category 4.4 properties are moving up.

But there’s also another way to look at these moves.

What Happens If We Look At The Changes Another Way?

Not all Marriott properties are equal but, as I don’t have the time or resources to work out which of the 1331 properties moving categories are good and which are less so, I’m going to rely on the hotel brands.

If you’re reading this blog the chances are that you’re interested in using your miles and points for great trips at great properties all around the world…right?

Ok, assuming that’s true, I think it would also be fair to say that there are some hotel brands that are less likely to be of interest to people looking to live the good life on points.

How many people look at their Marriott Rewards balance and wonder which SpringHill Suites property they can use them at? Probably not all that many.

So, with that in mind, I’ve done two things:

1. I’ve selected a few brands that I think are less likely to be of interest (or of significance) to readers looking to burn their Marriott points
2. I’ve checked to see how well these brands are represented by the properties moving categories.

Here are the results:

Moving up a category:

• 24 AC Hotels
• 245 Courtyard properties
• 257 Fairfield Inn or Fairfield Inn & Suites
• 157 Residence Inn properties
• 87 SpringHill Suites properties
• 92 TownPlace Suites properties

This means that 862 properties whose brands I wouldn’t associate with an aspirational points redemption are included in the number of properties moving up a category.

Put another way: 80% of properties moving up a category belong to a brand I suspect most wouldn’t consider aspirational.

Image- Marriott

Moving down a category:

• 5 AC Hotels
• 51 Courtyard
• 52 Fairfield Inn or Fairfield Inn & Suites
• 15 SpringHill Suites
• 23 TownPlace Suites

This means that, of the 247 properties moving down a category, 146 are properties whose brands I wouldn’t necessarily associate with an aspirational points redemption.

59% of the downward movers belong to brands that are probably not considered aspirational.

It could therefore be suggested that only 20% of the properties moving up a category are likely to be properties where people genuinely want to spend their points – that’s around 217 properties.

Likewise, it could also be suggested that 41% of the properties moving down a category (around 101 properties) are ones likely to be of interest to points fans.

That’s still not a great ratio – 2.1 properties of interest are moving up a category for every 1 that’s moving down – but it’s still considerably better than the ratio we started out with.

Image – Marriott

Bottom Line

Admittedly I’m making an assumption about where people want to stay but, if that assumption is correct, then this set of moves isn’t as terrible as some would have you believe.

If you genuinely look to use your points for stays at Courtyards, Residence Inns etc… (and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that if you do) then Marriott’s recent category changes are really bad news.

However, if you usually use your Marriott points to book stays at properties closer to the mid or high end of the scale, this is no more than a little bit of bad news that could have been a lot worse.